Global Economics
With the monthly publication “Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics” we pick up on current developments that have a significant impact on the economy and capital markets in order to derive trading recommendations for our investors using realistic models.
The quarterly “Quartely Economic Outlook and Financial Markets ” intensifies our market opinion and analyzes detailed facts and developments on the most important asset classes. We also provide an insight into our allocation models there.
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Monthly Reports and Quarterly Economics
| Date | Topic | Details | de | en |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.03.2024 |  | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: How good will the capital market year 2024 be? The capital markets started 2024 with a high level of confidence. Although hopes of substantial interest rate cuts by central banks had to be dampened somewhat and capital market yields have risen since the start of the year, the stock markets have made strong gains. But can this trend continue? | ||
| 07.03.2024 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: The German government's pension package - After the reform is before the reform After months of work, the German government has presented its "pension package II". There were no major surprises. It essentially consists of two elements that were already agreed in the 2021 coalition agreement. It is therefore also clear that, despite the innovations, contribution rates are expected to rise due to the relative increase in the pension level after 2025. | PDF | PDF |
| 10.01.2024 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Global economy and capital markets - trends in 2024 Economic growth is expected to be rather weak in 2024, but the economy is not expected to shrink. The burden on borrowers from higher interest rates will be offset by positive effects from rising wages and incomes in real terms. Inflation will be significantly lower than in 2023, but will not reach the central banks' average target for 2024. Interest rate cuts by central banks will be smaller than the current optimistic expectations of the financial markets. | PDF | PDF |
| 14.12.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Quarterly Economic Outlook and Financial Markets - December 2023 At the end of 2023, Dr. Michael Heise analyzes the state of the global economy and identifies clear differences between the three most important economies: the USA, China and Europe. Due to the rise in interest rates, the global economy should remain in troubled waters in 2024. Dr. Heise also warns against too much optimism with regard to interest rate cuts and explains what this means for the equity and bond markets. | PDF | - |
| 08.11.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Capital markets influenced by interest rate trends In the current issue, Dr. Michael Heise analyzes the development of central bank interest rates and their potential impact on capital market returns in 2024. | PDF | PDF |
| 13.09.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Germany needs more equity savers In the current issue, Dr. Michael Heise analyzes participation in the capital market in Germany and compares it with other countries. In addition, he shows ways to strengthen participation in the capital market. | PDF | PDF |
| 15.08.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Quarterly Economic Outlook and Financial Markets - August 2023 In the current issue, Dr. Michael Heise discusses the economic situation in the U.S., China and the euro area. In addition, he provides an outlook on the further growth prospects and analyzes what impact inflation and monetary policy should have on the bond and stock markets. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | - |
| 24.07.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: The probability of a recession in the US is falling iven the weakness of the European economy and a faltering recovery in China, stimulus from the US economy would be highly desirable. However, the economic development of the USA will also be decisive in determining whether the Democrats have a good chance of re-election and whether the capital markets will continue to be optimistic about the time ahead, as they were in the 1st half of 2023. At the same time, the forecast is more complex than ever due to numerous shocks in recent years. For example, the widely predicted economic slump has so far failed to materialize. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 15.05.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: The ECB's strategy regarding inflation No one could have predicted the inflation effects of covid pandemic and the Ukraine war with any accuracy. But the European central bank's misjudgments were particularly pronounced and consequential. The fight against unexpectedly high inflation will weaken growth and burden households and firms. These costs cannot be avoided. However, they can be limited if the central bank pursues a clear and reliable stabilization course. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 02.05.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Quarterly Economic Outlook and Financial Markets - April 2023 At the end of the first quarter of 2023, Dr. Michael Heise analyzes the stability of the financial markets following the problems of American regional banks and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse. He also examines the state of the global economy and provides an outlook for growth prospects in the developed economies. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | - |
| 29.03.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: A new banking crisis? Will the financial stress triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank remain temporary and limited - or will the situation come to a head and become a systemic crisis? Even days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the U.S., there is no consensus among financial market experts as to whether the turbulence it has triggered on the global financial markets will soon end or whether it could grow into a systemic crisis. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 02.03.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Economy in upheaval - 5 conclusions for German medium-sized companies What does the reality of the recent crisis mean for German medium-sized companies? What conclusions should companies draw from the current developments surrounding Covid, the Ukraine war and inflation? Inflation, energy problems, rising interest rates: the past year has demanded a lot from consumers. Which problems will remain with us, where are solutions emerging. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 09.01.2023 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Five theories for 2023 High inflation, energy problems, rising interest rates: the past year has demanded a lot from consumers. Which problems will remain, and where are solutions emerging? Five theories for the year 2023 | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 22.12.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Quarterly Economic Outlook and Financial Markets, December 2022 In this publication, Dr. Michael Heise analyzes the economic situation based on current data and provides an outlook on trends for 2023. In this context, he also looks back on the trends in 2022, which was characterized by new challenges and uncertainties. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | - |
| 24.11.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: The need for a new position agenda The German economy has run into rough waters: The Ukraine war and energy crisis have exacerbated existing problems - and prompted policymakers to focus primarily on current issues. However, inactivity in location policy is just as risky. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 23.09.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Were the Russia sanctions a mistake? At first glance, the results of the Russia sanctions are sobering. There is no sign of even a rudimentary relenting in the war against Ukraine. he energy price shock, on the other hand, has had a severe impact on the economies of Europe. Were the sanctions a mistake? | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 14.07.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: New approach for the business location Germany Germany is on the verge of recession. Consumers' purchasing power is suffering from the surge in inflation triggered by the rise in energy and food prices, which has now spread to many other groups of goods. As long as the Ukraine war and the sanc-tions against Russia continue, and unfortunately there is no end in sight, the energy markets will remain tense. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 14.06.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Ukraine War and Covid The Ukraine war is a humanitarian low point and a geopolitical watershed that will result in fundamental changes in the world order. New patterns of division of labor will emerge for the economy. Political risks have increased for companies and investors. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 06.04.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Turning point of the Inflation An almost global increase in consumer prices will make 2022 very unpleasant for consumers in many countries. Here in Germany and in the EMU, consumer prices are already more than 7% higher than in the previous year and threaten to rise further | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 28.02.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Ukraine Crisis The Russian attack on Ukraine will have far-reaching global political and economic implications. It has already fundamentally changed the security architecture in Europe. Further developments will depend on the outcome of the current crisis. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 26.01.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - 2022 With the long underestimated and virtually global rise in inflation in recent months, central banks have come under pressure to exit their expansionary monetary policies soon. For investors, the question arises as to how consistently the central banks will take action, what this means for the economy and whether significant setbacks on the capital markets are to be expected? | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 15.01.2022 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: The Economy Matters! The new coalition government started out with the goal of modernizing Germany and daring to make more progress. Dr. Michael Heise explains why the right economic policy plays a very important role in achieving these ambitious goals. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
| 06.12.2021 | | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: China - Buying Opportunity or Time to Pull the Ripcord? China's stock market has been lagging the global market for some time, and the riskier bond markets have also given investors little pleasure of late. Investors are asking themselves whether the time has come again for an entry - or whether they would be better off giving the country a wide berth for the long term. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. | PDF Nur im 14-tägigen Testzugang verfügbar. |
Quarterly Economic Outlook and Financial Markets
| Date | Topic | Details | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05.05.2022 |  | Dr. Michael Heise on Global Economics: Quarterly Economic Outlook and Financial Markets, Mai 2022 Global economy shifts down a gear: The recovery of the global economy, which characterized 2021, stalled at the beginning of the year. In addition to corona restrictions still in place in many places, high price level increases due to rising energy and raw material prices weakened private consumption. |
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